Miami vs Tokyo vs Mallorca — How We Think About Geographic Allocation

The three markets Shibui operates in were chosen deliberately, and they are deliberately different from one another. Miami is USD-denominated, late-cycle, climate-repricing. Tokyo is JPY-denominated, deflationary-emerging-from, currency-cheap by multi-decade standards. Mallorca is EUR-denominated, supply-constrained, scarcity-driven.

Held together, they form a cross-currency, cross-cycle portfolio. Held individually, each makes sense on its own terms. This essay is about how we think about the relative weighting between them for a family with $5M to $50M of cross-border real estate exposure.

Side-by-side market profile

Currency exposure

A USD investor concentrating in Mallorca takes on EUR exposure. A EUR investor concentrating in Miami takes on USD exposure. Neither is wrong, but it should be a conscious choice. Our default for diversified family capital is roughly balanced exposure across USD, EUR, and JPY, weighted toward the investor's home currency and the currency in which the family's largest ongoing expenses are denominated.

Cycle and return profile

Each market is in a different cyclical position. Miami is late-cycle, with insurance repricing as the dominant local variable; the trade is in selectively protected submarkets, not the broad market. Mallorca is supply-constrained scarcity, with modest yield and long-duration appreciation; the trade is in heritage product the supply of which cannot grow. Tokyo is early-cycle inflation re-emergence after thirty years, currency at a multi-decade low against USD and EUR, with a real value-add depreciation tax shield available to non-resident corporate buyers; the trade is in central submarkets that have been chronically undervalued through the deflation period.

How we allocate

There is no single right answer. As a rough framework for a USD-based family with a 10-year horizon and $5M to $20M to deploy across the three markets, we typically discuss a starting allocation of roughly 40% Miami / 30% Mallorca / 30% Tokyo, then adjust for the family's use case (is anyone actually living there?), currency view, and tax residence. EUR-base families typically end up more weighted to Mallorca and Tokyo; JPY-base families more weighted to Mallorca and Miami.